ITC Weekly Chart Analysis
ITC Ltd – Weekly Chart Technical Analysis
a) Phase Analysis (Observation-Based)
Phase 1 – Markdown (2020 COVID Crash): ~Jan 2020 to Mar 2020, price fell from ~250 to ~146 (~-42%). Sharp impulsive Wyckoff "Selling Climax" type decline.
Phase 2 – Automatic Rally / Accumulation (2020-2022): Mar 2020 to ~Jun 2022, price moved sideways-to-up from ~146 to ~250-260 (~+70-80%). Marked by multiple "P" pivot labels — classic Wyckoff Accumulation range with repeated tests of support (Spring/Test behavior visible near 175-200 zone in late 2020-2021).
Phase 3 – Markup/Breakout (2022-2023): ~Jun 2022 to Feb 2023, strong impulsive rally from ~260 to ~475 (~+82%). This is the primary Markup phase – sustained higher highs and higher lows.
Phase 4 – Distribution/Re-accumulation (2023): Feb 2023 to ~Nov 2023, price ranged between ~400-475, forming a broad sideways box (~-15% to flat).
Phase 5 – Second Markup Leg: ~Nov 2023 to Aug 2024, rally from ~400 to ATH ~500-525 (~+25-30%). This formed the All-Time High.
Phase 6 – Distribution Top: Aug 2024 to ~Dec 2025, price oscillated in a wide 400-475 range for over a year — classic Wyckoff Distribution (Buying Climax → range → weakening rallies).
Phase 7 – Markdown (Current): ~Dec 2025 to present (Jun 2026), sharp decline from ~430 to CMP ~282 (~-34%). This is an active, steep markdown — breaking below the entire 2022-2025 accumulation/markup range.
b) Key Levels Table
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| All-Time High (ATH) | ~525 | Aug 2024 |
| Major Resistance 1 | ~430-450 | 2023-2025 range top, now broken |
| Major Resistance 2 | ~400-410 | Prior support, now resistance |
| 2022-23 Breakout Origin | ~260-280 | Where the big markup began |
| Recent Swing High (P marker) | ~335 | Failed retest, early 2026 |
| Major Support / Demand | ~250-260 | 2022 base top / launch zone |
| All-Time/COVID Low | ~146 | Mar 2020 |
| CMP | 282.40 | Current |
c) Trading Setup (Educational Only)
- Current Phase: Markdown — price has broken below the multi-year 2022-2025 support shelf (~400-410) and is now testing the upper boundary of the 2022 base (~260-280).
- Trigger for next phase: A weekly close above ~310-320 would signal a potential reversal/relief rally; a weekly close below ~260 confirms continuation of markdown toward the older base.
- Entry Zone (if attempting long, aggressive): 260-280 (testing prior breakout origin/support)
- Stop Loss: Weekly close below 245 (invalidates support)
- Target 1: ~330-340 (recent failed pivot)
- Target 2: ~400 (prior resistance turned support, now major resistance)
- Risk:Reward: Roughly 1:2.5 to 1:3 from entry zone to Target 1
- Timeframe: Positional (weeks to a few months), given weekly chart structure
Summary Table
| Phase | Period | From | To | % Move | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markdown | Jan-Mar 2020 | 250 | 146 | -42% | Selling Climax |
| Accumulation | Mar 2020-Jun 2022 | 146 | 260 | +78% | Wyckoff Accumulation (multiple P pivots) |
| Markup 1 | Jun 2022-Feb 2023 | 260 | 475 | +83% | Trend Markup |
| Distribution/Range | Feb-Nov 2023 | 475 | 400 | -16% | Re-accumulation/Range |
| Markup 2 | Nov 2023-Aug 2024 | 400 | 525 | +31% | Markup to ATH |
| Distribution Top | Aug 2024-Dec 2025 | 525 | 430 | Range | Wyckoff Distribution |
| Current Markdown | Dec 2025-Jun 2026 | 430 | 282 | -34% | Active Markdown |
h) 2-3 Month Outlook
Expected direction (assumption-based, low confidence): Likely volatile range-bound to mildly bearish given the steep recent decline; some mean-reversion bounce is plausible after a -34% drawdown but no confirmed reversal pattern is visible yet.
- Probable upside target zone: 320-340 (only if 280 holds and a relief rally develops)
- Probable downside risk zone: 245-260 (next major support cluster)
- Most likely range: 260-330
- Breakout level (accelerates upside): Weekly close above ~340
- Breakdown level (accelerates downside): Weekly close below ~260
Scenario projections:
- Bullish: if 280-310 holds and breaks 340 → target ~400 over 2-3 months
- Base case: consolidation 260-330
- Bearish: if 260 fails → downside toward 220-245
Support from trend/momentum: The chart shows a strong, unbroken downtrend since Dec 2025 with no visible base formation yet — momentum currently favors bears. No volume data is visible on this chart to confirm any reversal signal.
Confidence level: Low — the recent decline is sharp and a basing/accumulation structure (similar to the 2020-2022 "P" pivot zone) has not yet visibly formed at current levels.
e) Overall Technical Bias
Wait-and-Watch / Bearish-to-Neutral — the dominant structure is an active markdown breaking multi-year support; no reversal confirmation yet.
f) Best Actionable Level
~260-280 zone — this is the prior breakout origin and major support; reaction here (hold vs. break) will likely define the next 2-3 month direction.
g) Suitability
Currently better suited for positional/swing watchers waiting for confirmation rather than fresh entries. Not ideal for aggressive swing trades until either a base forms above 260 or a clean breakdown below 260 with momentum.
d) Annotated Chart
Note: I cannot generate a chart with custom phase-colored boxes, trendlines, and annotations overlaid on the actual uploaded price data — that would require image editing/recreation tools I don't have access to in this context. I can describe the annotation scheme precisely (as done in section 5 of your request) for you to apply in TradingView/Investing.com directly, or I can create a simplified illustrative diagram of the phase structure if that would help — let me know.
Key Risks
- Steep recent fall (-34% from ~430) could continue without a clear base; "catching falling knife" risk near current levels
- Distribution top (Aug 2024-Dec 2025) suggests heavy supply overhead — any bounce may face strong resistance near 330-400
- No volume/momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) visible on this chart to corroborate reversal timing
- This is technical-only analysis; no fundamental data has been considered as instructed
Disclaimer: This is for educational/research purposes only, not investment advice. All levels are observations from the chart image and assumptions are explicitly marked as such. No outcomes are guaranteed.
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