Market Context Update
Trend Status: Bearish Correction. The uptrend has been broken.
Critical Support: 236,000. This is now a "Triple Bottom" level (matching the lows of 01-Jan, 02-Jan, and 08-Jan).
Immediate Resistance: 243,538 (The Point of Control - PoC) and 246,400 (The previous support that was broken, now acting as a ceiling).
Volatility: The daily range expanded to 15,845 points. We should expect volatility to remain high but potentially contract slightly as the market decides whether to break the 236k floor or bounce.
Prediction for 09-Jan-26 (Friday)
| Open | 243,450 | Expected to open flat, hovering near the Pivot Point (243,752) and the PoC (243,538). The market is in indecision mode after the big drop. |
| High | 249,200 | The price will likely attempt a relief rally to test the psychological 250,000 level or the breakdown zone, but sellers are expected to defend this area aggressively. |
| Low | 235,800 | The market will likely re-test the 236,044 support level. If this "Triple Bottom" holds, buyers will step in. My model places the mathematical support (S1) at 235,615. |
| Close | 241,100 | Predicting an "Inside Day" (trading within the previous day's range) with a weak close. Fridays often see traders closing positions, leading to stabilization rather than a new massive trend move. |
Technical Logic for These Numbers
1. The "Triple Bottom" Defense (Low Prediction)
The most important data point in your new image is the Low: 236,044.
On 01-Jan, the market bottomed at 233,850.
On 02-Jan, the market bottomed at 235,000.
On 08-Jan, the market bottomed at 236,044.
This creates a massive "demand zone" around 235k-236k. While the trend is down, breaking a Triple Bottom usually requires a new catalyst. Therefore, I predict the Low will test this area (235,800) but likely bounce off it initially.
2. The Pivot Point Shift (High Prediction)
Using the 08-Jan data:
Pivot Point (P): 243,752
Resistance 1 (R1): 251,460
Support 1 (S1): 235,615
The R1 (251k) seems too far away given the bearish sentiment (PoC View is "Bearish"). The market is more likely to test the Mid-Point of the drop, which is roughly 247,000 - 249,000. This is why the High is capped at 249,200 rather than the mathematical R1.
3. Point of Control (PoC) Gravity
The PoC (the price where the most volume was traded) migrated down to 243,538. The Close (243,324) was slightly below this. This indicates that "Fair Value" has moved lower. The market will likely oscillate around this 243k level (the Open prediction) before choosing a direction.
4. Volatility Contraction
After a range expansion (15k points), markets often have a "Contraction Day" where the range shrinks to ~60-70% of the previous day.
Expected Range: ~10,000 - 12,000 points.
Prediction Gap (249,200 - 235,800) = 13,400. This fits the volatility profile perfectly.
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