1. Technical Analysis Breakdown
A. Trend Analysis & Price Patterns
Primary Trend: The macro trend for 2025 was strongly bullish (hitting a peak ~125,000), but the asset is currently in a Intermediate Downtrend/Corrective Phase.
Pattern Identification (Head and Shoulders - Bearish): There is a visible, large "Head and Shoulders" pattern. The Left Shoulder formed around 110k, the Head at ~125k, and the Right Shoulder at ~115k. The neckline appears to be around the 95,000–98,000 zone. The price has broken below this neckline, confirming a bearish breakdown, but is currently finding support.
Current Action: The price is consolidating in a Descending Channel or a potential Double Bottom formation near the 80,000–85,000 zone. The recent candles show rejection of lower prices (long lower wicks), indicating accumulation.
B. Elliott Wave Theory
Wave Count: The rally to 125,000 completed a Grand Cycle Wave 3 or 5.
Current Phase: We are likely in a Corrective Wave C of an A-B-C structure.
Wave A: Drop from 125k to 95k.
Wave B: Bounce to 115k.
Wave C: The current drop to the 80k–88k region.
Implication: Wave C often ends near the 1.618 extension of Wave A or at strong Fibonacci support. The deceleration of the drop suggests Wave C is nearing completion or is complete, signaling a potential reversal (Wave 1 of a new cycle).
C. Fibonacci Analysis
Retracement: Drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the major swing low (~55,000) to the all-time high (~125,000):
50% Retracement: ~90,000 (Price is currently hovering just below this).
61.8% Retracement: ~81,700 (The "Golden Pocket").
Observation: The recent low wick tested the 61.8% level (~80k-81k) and bounced. This is the strongest support zone in technical analysis. As long as 80,000 holds, the macro bullish structure remains valid.
D. Moving Averages (10 & 30)
Status: Bearish Alignment.
Crossover: The 10-day MA is currently below the 30-day MA, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
Price Action: The price is trading slightly below the 10-day MA. A daily close above 92,000 would likely trigger a "Golden Cross" on shorter timeframes and signal a short-term trend reversal.
E. Gann Theory & Angles
Gann Angles: The price has fallen sharply away from the 1x1 Bullish Angle. It is currently testing the 2x1 angle support.
Time Cycles: The distance between the major peaks and the corrective bottoms suggests a time cycle turn is due. The end of December is historically a pivot time for Bitcoin (tax-loss harvesting ending, new year positioning beginning).
Squaring: The price of 81,000–88,000 represents a squaring of price and time relative to the 125,000 high.
F. Indicators & Oscillators (Inferred)
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Likely recovering from "Oversold" (<30) conditions. The consolidation suggests RSI is resetting to neutral (40-50). A break above 50 would confirm bullish divergence.
Pivot Points:
Pivot (P): ~98,000 (Price is below Pivot - Bearish bias).
S1 (Support 1): 82,000.
S2 (Support 2): 75,000.
R1 (Resistance 1): 96,000.
2. Key Levels
| Major Resistance | 100,000 - 102,000 | Psychological barrier & Neckline re-test. |
| Minor Resistance | 94,500 | Recent swing high / 10 MA dynamic resistance. |
| Current Price | 88,244 | Consolidation zone. |
| Immediate Support | 85,000 | Local double bottom support. |
| Critical Support | 80,000 - 81,500 | 61.8% Fibonacci Golden Pocket. Must Hold. |
3. Trading Strategy
Strategy: "Counter-Trend Reversal / Swing Long"
Rationale: The asset is at a major Fibonacci support (61.8%) after a completed ABC correction. Risk/Reward favors the bulls here despite the bearish trend.
Entry:
Aggressive: Market Price (88,244).
Conservative: Wait for a Daily Candle close above 92,000 (reclaiming the 10MA).
Stop Loss (SL):
Strict: 79,500 (Just below the 61.8% Fib and recent wicks). If this breaks, the trend collapses to 65k.
Targets (TP):
Target 1: 98,000 (Test of the breakdown neckline).
Target 2: 110,000 (Right Shoulder resistance).
4. Trend Prediction: Next 1 Month (January 2026)
Forecast: Sideways to Bullish Recovery
Bottom Formation: The sharp sell-off from 125k to 80k appears to have exhausted the selling pressure. The volume usually dries up during the Christmas/New Year week (current time).
January Effect: Historically, if an asset sells off heavily in December (tax harvesting), it rebounds in January as capital re-enters the market.
Technical Bounce: The test of the 61.8% Fibonacci level usually guarantees a relief rally, even if the long-term trend remains bearish.
Predicted Path:
Expect chop/consolidation between 85k and 90k for the remaining days of 2025. In early January 2026, expect a breakout above 92k pushing toward the 100k region. The trend is shifting from Bearish to Neutral/Accumulation.
Verdict: The chart suggests the "bleeding" has stopped. This is an accumulation zone for a relief rally.
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