Disclaimer: This analysis is based on astrological principles for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading in the stock market involves significant risk, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading / investment decisions.
1. Overall Market Condition & Price Action Analysis
Broader Trend: Similar to BankNifty, the Nifty 50 chart shows a strong uptrend from the lows established in mid-June. This rally culminated in a peak near the 25,700 level.
Corrective Phase: After hitting the peak, the index underwent a correction, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, eventually finding support around the 25,350 level.
Current Action: The most recent price action is distinctly bullish. The session closed with a very strong, large green candle, indicating a surge in buying pressure that has broken the immediate downtrend structure.
2. Technical Analysis Breakdown
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance (R1): 25,500. This is a key psychological round number and was a prior support level during the decline. It's the first major hurdle for the bulls.
Major Resistance (R2): 25,650 - 25,700. This zone represents the recent swing high and is the primary target for a continued bullish move.
Immediate Support / Pivot Zone: 25,450 - 25,475. The horizontal blue line on the chart highlights this area, which acted as support and resistance multiple times. The market closed right at the lower end of this zone.
First Support (S1): 25,400. This level marks the consolidation area just before the final leg of the bounce.
Major Support (S2): 25,350. This is the recent swing low and the origin of the current sharp rally. A break below this level would signal a continuation of the corrective trend.
Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Analysis
Elliott Wave Count:
The decline from the ~25,700 high to the ~25,350 low can be interpreted as a completed A-B-C corrective pattern.
The powerful rally from the 25,350 low is the start of a new impulsive wave to the upside. We are likely in Wave 1 of a new 5-wave sequence.
Fibonacci Retracement (of the corrective move):
Drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the recent high (~25,700) to the corrective low (~25,350):
The 38.2% retracement level is at approximately 25,483. The market is currently challenging this level. A firm close above it is a bullish confirmation.
The 50% retracement level is at 25,525. This aligns closely with our R1 resistance, making the 25,500-25,525 zone a strong confluence area for a potential target and pause.
Trendline and Pivot Point Analysis
Trendline: A descending trendline connecting the peak at ~25,700 and the subsequent lower high has been decisively broken by the last strong green candle. This breakout is a significant technical signal that the short-term downtrend is likely over.
Pivot Point: The key pivot for the next session is the 25,475 zone. For the bullish momentum to continue, the price needs to establish itself firmly above this level.
3. Trade Setup & Prediction for the Next 6 Hours (24 candles)
The confluence of a strong bullish closing candle, a trendline breakout, and the completion of a corrective wave pattern points to a bullish bias for the upcoming session.
Primary Scenario (Bullish Continuation):
The buying momentum seen at the close will carry forward, pushing the index higher after clearing the immediate resistance.
Entry: A confident entry can be taken on a 15-minute candle closing firmly above the 25,500 resistance level. This would confirm the breakout above the pivot zone.
Target 1: 25,525 - 25,550 (50% Fibonacci level and prior price structure).
Target 2: If Target 1 is surpassed with strong volume, the next logical target is the major resistance zone at 25,650.
Stop-Loss: A prudent stop-loss can be placed below the recent S1 support, around 25,390. This protects against a false breakout while allowing for minor pullbacks.
Secondary Scenario (Range-Bound / Reversal):
The index fails to overcome the 25,500 resistance and the buying pressure subsides.
Trigger: If Nifty repeatedly fails at the 25,500 level and starts forming red candles, it could indicate a potential reversal. A definitive bearish trigger would be a break below 25,400.
Target: The first bearish target would be a retest of the major support at 25,350.
Summary of Prediction (Next 6 Hours):
The path of least resistance is pointing up. The immediate test will be at the 25,475 - 25,500 zone.
Opening/First 1-2 Hours: Expect Nifty to challenge and attempt to break the 25,500 resistance. The initial price action will be critical.
Mid-Session (2-4 Hours): A successful breakout above 25,500 should propel the index towards the 25,550 level.
Later Session (4-6 Hours): The price action will likely consolidate between 25,500 and 25,550. If bullish momentum remains very strong, a further push towards the major resistance at 25,650 is possible.
Given the strength of the closing candle, the bullish breakout scenario is the more probable outcome.
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