Disclaimer: This analysis is based on astrological principles for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading in the stock market involves significant risk, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading / investment decisions.
1. Overall Market Condition & Price Action Analysis
Recent Trend: The chart displays a significant uptrend that started from the lows around mid-June. This uptrend peaked near the 57,600 level in early July.
Correction: Following the peak, the index entered a corrective phase, pulling back to a low of approximately 56,600.
Current Action: The most recent price action shows a strong bullish recovery from the 56,600 low. The last few 15-minute candles are strong green candles, indicating significant buying pressure and momentum returning. The market closed right at a critical level.
2. Technical Analysis Breakdown
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance (R1): 57,200. This level was a prior support during the consolidation before the final leg of the drop. It also aligns with a key Fibonacci level (see below).
Major Resistance (R2): 57,550 - 57,600. This is the recent swing high and represents a significant psychological and technical barrier.
Immediate Support / Pivot Zone: 57,000 - 57,050. The price is currently at this level. The blue line marked 'P' on your chart indicates this is the Central Pivot Point for the day. This is the most crucial level for the next session.
First Support (S1): 56,800. This was a minor consolidation area during the recent bounce.
Major Support (S2): 56,600. This is the recent swing low from which the current rally began. A break below this would invalidate the current bullish structure.
Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Analysis
Elliott Wave Count:
The pullback from the ~57,600 high to the ~56,600 low appears to be a classic A-B-C corrective wave.
The current strong move up from 56,600 is likely the beginning of a new 5-wave impulse sequence to the upside. We are currently in Wave 1 of this new sequence.
Fibonacci Retracement (of the recent down-move):
Drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the high at ~57,600 to the low at ~56,600:
The 38.2% retracement is around 57,000. The price has just crossed this level, which is a bullish sign.
The next significant level is the 61.8% retracement at approximately 57,220. This level aligns perfectly with our R1 resistance, making it a strong potential target and a point of potential consolidation.
Trendline and Pivot Point Analysis
Trendline: A short-term descending trendline connecting the highs of the recent correction has been decisively broken by the last few bullish candles. This is a strong breakout signal, suggesting the downtrend is over and the primary uptrend is resuming.
Pivot Point: As mentioned, the price is currently sitting exactly on the Central Pivot Point (P) at ~57,030. Trading above this pivot is bullish, while trading below is bearish. A firm hold above this level is essential for the bullish case.
3. Trade Setup & Prediction for the Next 6 Hours (24 candles)
Based on the confluence of the bullish breakout, the completion of an A-B-C correction, and the price action at the pivot point, the outlook for the next 6 hours is cautiously bullish.
Primary Scenario (Bullish):
The market will likely consolidate briefly above the pivot point before continuing its upward momentum.
Entry: Look for a sustained move and a 15-minute candle closing firmly above 57,100. This confirms the break of the pivot zone.
Target 1: 57,200 - 57,250 (R1 resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci level). Expect some profit-taking or a pause at this level.
Target 2: If Target 1 is broken decisively, the next target would be the recent high of 57,550.
Stop-Loss: A logical stop-loss would be placed just below the recent minor support and the pivot zone, around 56,850. This gives the trade room to breathe while protecting against a failed breakout.
Secondary Scenario (Bearish Reversal):
If the market fails to hold above the pivot point and the buying momentum fades, a reversal could occur.
Trigger: A break and close below 56,900 on the 15-minute chart would signal a failure at the pivot and a potential return to bearish sentiment.
Target: The first bearish target would be the major support at 56,600.
Summary of Prediction (Next 6 Hours):
The path of least resistance appears to be upwards. The immediate battle is at the 57,000-57,100 pivot zone.
Opening/First 1-2 Hours: Expect a test of strength around the current level. A successful hold above 57,000 will be key.
Mid-Session (2-4 Hours): A successful hold should lead to a rally towards the first major hurdle at 57,200 - 57,250.
Later Session (4-6 Hours): The reaction at 57,250 will determine the next move. A breakout could lead to a continued rally towards 57,500+, while a rejection could lead to a consolidation between 57,000 and 57,250.
The bullish scenario is more probable given the strong momentum candle at the close and the break of the downtrend line.
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