Banknifty Expected Move for 16th Jun'25 (Monday)

Technical Analysis & Key Observations on the Banknifty Chart

1. Confirmation of Bearish Trend: The breakdown below the 55,500 support level is a strong confirmation that the bearish trend, initiated by the double top pattern, is still in control. The path of least resistance remains downwards.

2. Role Reversal (The Most Important Factor Now):

   • The previous support level at 55,500 - 55,600 (marked by the blue dashed line) has now flipped into a major resistance zone. This is a classic technical principle known as "polarity."

   • Logic: Buyers who bought at this level before are now trapped and may look to sell at their entry price to break even. Simultaneously, sellers who missed the initial drop see this level as a good opportunity to enter new short positions. The price struggling below this line confirms its new role as a ceiling.

3. Current Price Pattern: Bear Flag (High Probability):

   • After the sharp initial fall (the "flagpole"), the price has entered a period of sideways-to-slightly-upward consolidation. This price action is forming a classic Bear Flag pattern.

   • Logic: A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern. It represents a brief pause or a minor retracement before the next leg of the downtrend begins. The sellers are temporarily taking a break, and weak buyers are attempting a minor bounce, which is being met with selling pressure at the new resistance.

4. Support and Resistance Levels (Updated):

   • Key Resistance: 55,500 - 55,650. The market must decisively break above this zone to negate the immediate bearish view.

   • Immediate Support: The low of the day, around 55,200. This is the level that bulls must defend.

5. Candlestick Analysis:

   • The session began with a powerful bearish move (gap down and fall), indicating overwhelming selling pressure at the open.

   • The candles within the flag pattern are small and show indecision, with wicks on both sides, which is typical for a consolidation phase. The market is coiling up for its next move.

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Prediction for the Next 6 Hours

The most likely trend for the next 6 hours is BEARISH CONTINUATION.

Logic and Expected Price Action:

The confluence of a confirmed downtrend, the key resistance at 55,600, and the formation of a high-probability bear flag pattern points strongly towards another move down.

• Primary Scenario (Bearish Continuation - High Probability):

  • Logic: The bear flag pattern is expected to resolve downwards.

  • Price Action: The market will likely break below the lower trendline of the current consolidation flag (around 55,350). A decisive break below the day's low of 55,200 would act as the trigger for the next wave of selling. The technical target for a bear flag breakdown is often the length of the initial flagpole, suggesting a potential move towards the 55,000 psychological level or even lower.

• Secondary Scenario (Sideways Consolidation):

  • Logic: If there isn't enough selling pressure to break the immediate lows, the market could remain trapped in the current range.

  • Price Action: The price would continue to chop between the support around 55,200 and the resistance at 55,650. This would delay the bearish breakdown but not invalidate it unless the resistance is broken.

• Tertiary Scenario (Bullish Reversal - Low Probability):

  • Logic: To reverse the trend, buyers would need to show exceptional strength by pushing the price through the heavy overhead supply.

  • Price Action: A strong and sustained move above 55,650 would invalidate the bear flag and could trigger a short-covering rally towards 55,800 - 56,000. Given the current context, this is the least likely scenario.

Summary & Key Levels to Watch

• Overall Bias: Strongly Bearish.

• Key Pattern: Bear Flag (Continuation Pattern).

• Pivot Zone: 55,500 - 55,650 (Old support, now new resistance).

  • As long as the Price Stays Below 55,650: The outlook is bearish. Look for a breakdown below 55,200.

  • If Price Moves Above 55,650: The immediate bearish setup is negated, and a short-term bounce is possible.

The technical evidence heavily favors a continuation of the downtrend after this consolidation phase concludes.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based purely on the technical patterns visible in the provided image. Financial markets are influenced by many factors, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial advice.